Posts Tagged ‘mathematics’

Why frequent flyer bonus programs is a scam

Friday, December 3rd, 2010

I have tried several flight bonus programs over the years in my search to find even cheaper flights. Because I fly a lot, if I believed the flight companies commercials, I should get several benefits if I join their bonus programs. Let’s look at their claimed benefits one at a time:

Free flights
Let’s say you want a free single way ticket from Sweden to South Africa. To earn the points needed for this, you need to fly the same distance 23 times and the 24th time you will get the ticket for free. This means you will spend about 15 000 euro for flight tickets before even getting one flight for free. Keep in mind that most membership programs delete your points after 2-5 years, so you need to make all the 24 flights within this time not to loose the points again before getting the final flight for free. And remember, all this flights need to be with the flight companies within the network for your membership card. This means you can not fly with your regular low price flights and airlines which have the cheapest flights, or even last minute tickets. The same applies for upgrading your ticket to first class, it takes a LOT of expensive travel to reach this level.

Airport lounges
Lounges at the airport are nice to relax or work in and you can save money because of the free food and drinks. It is also a good place to extend your business network. On the negative side though you meet more interesting travelers outside the lounges, and if you travel with friends they all need to pay 10 euro each to enter the lounge. Finally, most people try to be in the airport as short time as possible anyway, so there is no time for the lounge.

Priority queues at the airport
Ok the priority queues are nice but it will not get you flying earlier than the people in the back of the long queue anyway. The good thing is you can use the time for other things at the airport, instead of queuing.

So for the conclusion, at least for me it would never be worth it to use one of the today existing frequent flyer bonus programs. Of what I see the only situation it would gain you is if you are employed and fly on weekly bases within your work.

If you still think a frequent flyer flight bonus program would be a good thing for you, here are some of the biggest ones. There are about 100 more programs, and you should choose one that have most flights in the area you move around within the most, and at the same time a membership card that can be linked together with your daily payment card. The similarities of partner flight airlines is because a lot of the frequent flyer programs are connected with the Star Alliance Network.

* Miles & Smiles (Turkish Airlines)
Can be combined with American Express, Master Card.
Partners: Adria, Agean, Air Canada, Air China, Air New Zealand, ANA, AnadoluJet, Asiana Airlines, Austrian Airlines, B&H Airlines, Blue1, Brussels Airlines, bmi, Continental, Crotia, Egypt Air, Jet Airways, LOT Polish Airlines, Lufthansa, Scandinavian Airlines, Singapore Airlines, South African Airways, Spanair, Swiss International Air Lines, TAM, TAP Portugal, Thai Airways International, Turkish Airlines, United Airlines, US Airways

Miles & More (Lufthansa & Swiss International Air Lines)
Can be combined with American Express, Diners Club (only Swiss Franc), Credit Suisse. You get a monthly invoice with your collected expenses.
Partners: Adria Airlines, Aegean Airlines, Air Astana, Air Canada, Air China, Air Dolomiti, Air India, Air Malta, Air New Zealand, ANA, Asiana Airlines, Austrian Airlines Group, Blue1, bmi, Brussels Airlines, Cirrus Airlines, Condor, Continental Airlines, Croatia Airlines, Egypt Air, Ethiopian Airlines, Germanwings, Jat Airways, Jet Airways, LOT Polish Airlines, Lufthansa, Lufthansa Italia, Lufthansa Private Jet, Lufthansa Regional, Luxair, Mexicana, Qatar Airways, SAS Scandinavian Airlines, Singapore Airlines, South African Airways, Spanair, Swiss International Air Lines, TACA, TAM, TAP Portugal, THAI, Turkish Airlines, United, US Airways

* SAS Eurobonus (SAS Scandinavian Airlines)
Can be combined with American Express, Diners Club, MasterCard
Partners: Adria Airlines, Aegean Airlines, AirBaltic, Air Canada, Air China, Air New Zealand, ANA, Asiana Airlines, Atlantic Airways, Austrian Airlines Group, Blue1, bmi, Brussels Airlines, Cimber Sterling, City Airline, Continental Airlines, Croatia Airlines, Egypt Air, Estonian Air, Ethiopian Airlines, LOT Polish Airlines, Lufthansa, Qantas, Shanghai Airlines, SAS Scandinavian Airlines, Skyways, South African Airways, Spanair, Swiss International Air Lines,  TAM, TAP Portugal, THAI, Turkish Airlines, United, US Airways, Widerøe

* Mileage Plus (United Airlines)
Can be combined with VISA, American Express (Japan, United Kingdom), MasterCard (Argentina, Brazil, Hong Kong, Japan)
Partners: Adria Airlines, Aegean Airlines, Aer Lingus, Air Canada, Air China, ANA, Air New Zealand, Asiana Airlines, Austrian Airlines Group, Blue1, bmi, Brussels Airlines, Continental Airlines, Croatia Airlines, EgyptAir, Emirates, Hawaiian Airlines, Island Air, Jet Airways, LOT Polish Airlines, Lufthansa, Qatar Airways, SAS Scandinavian Airlines, Singapore Airways, South African Airways, Spanair, Swiss International Air Lines,  TAM, TACA Airlines, TAP Portugal, THAI, Turkish Airlines, United, US Airways

Frequent flyer bonus programs (A380 Lufthansa)

The mathematics of running into people again

Tuesday, September 22nd, 2009

The last weekend in Cartagena I got several new great friends. One of these was an Italian guy who just moved to Cartagena to study there for 10 months. He took my phone number and we decided to meet up someday in the future. The next day I was sitting at a restaurant eating tapas in this 200 000+ inhabitants city, when the same Italian guy walked past and looking in through the door. I was a little bit surprised but not too much as these kinds of things happen to me a lot. Lately I have started to wonder if this also is common to other people.

The restaurant where we found each other again was not near any special place nor near where we were the night before. Not either did we have any common interest that could have drawn us both to this area at exact this time. It was just totally random as I see it.

As I now know around 10 people in Cartagena, this should mean that the chance of running into one of those friends are 1 in 20 000. I have only been to this city 6 days in total, which also should mean that every one of these days is a chance of 1 of 3 333 that I run into somebody I know (from that city, if everybody you see is a new face to you). This usually happens to me in a lot of cities, not only this one time. In other case I would also calculate all cities this don’t happen in, to get a lower number.

In a regular active day I estimate a normal person who are in the city center see about 500 detailed faces in a day (this was an empty Sunday, but lets ignore that). That would mean that my 3 333 now is down to 1 in 7, not so impressive anymore.

Of course there are a LOT of more factors, like how good your face memory and eye vision is, how tired or thoughtful you are, if you look at shop windows or people, how many hours a week you are in certain central areas, if you are indoors or outdoors, how many people are around you, if you are sitting still or moving, your and the other persons age, how good looking or interesting they are, where you work, where you live and so on.

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Bottom note: This also happens to me in much bigger cities, for example in London, where I also know even fewer people. And once I ran into a girl in another country than I first met her in (on the same trip, without knowing we were both traveling in the same direction). If you have similar stories, please share them as comments here below!

Ocean of people near the harbor in Cartagena, at the Sailing MedCup Circuit

Ocean of people near the harbor in Cartagena, at the Sailing MedCup Circuit